ARCC stock sentiment todayAres Capital Corp
Sentiment verdict
Gossip first, financials second — HOT at 88% confidence.
Last updated · cached analysis, refreshes periodically
ARCC
Ares Capital CorpThe gold standard of BDCs, offering a massive 9%+ yield backed by a defensive, cycle-tested portfolio.
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See exactly how analyst targets, gossip sentiment and momentum are weighted into this 6-month forecast.
Sign in to go Pro →Full model breakdown (analyst / gossip / momentum weights) is a Pro feature. Modelled for ARCC. Not financial advice.
Price · last 12 months
Gossip
Market sentiment remains highly favorable as ARCC is viewed as the premier 'flight to quality' play in the private credit space. Narrative focuses on their ability to maintain dividends despite potential rate cuts.
- ·Dominance in the upper-middle market lending space
- ·Consistent track record of net asset value (NAV) stability
- ·High retail demand for the 9.8% annualized dividend yield
Financial
ARCC maintains a highly diversified portfolio with a focus on first-lien senior secured loans. Leverage remains well within target ranges with strong liquidity to capitalize on market volatility.
- ·Dividend Yield: ~9.8% (at $19.42)
- ·Price-to-NAV: ~1.01x (trading near fair value)
- ·Portfolio Diversification: 500+ companies across 20+ industries
- ·Net Investment Income (NII): Consistently covers base dividend
Conviction
Whose money is actually in the stock — insider open-market trades and the patience of the institutional holder base.
Mixed conviction — no decisive signal from insiders or the holder base.
- ·Insiders bought a net $46K on the open market in the last 120 days.
Pro shows every named insider trade in the window (buyer, title, size, price, and whether it was a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sale) plus the full holder register split into patient capital and fast money.
Unlock with Pro →Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 + 13F holder register. Option exercises, grants, gifts and tax withholding are excluded — only open-market purchases and sales count. Not financial advice.
Risks
- ·Interest rate sensitivity (declining rates may squeeze yields on floating-rate loans)
- ·Macroeconomic downturn increasing non-accruals
- ·Increased competition in the private credit sector compressing spreads
Peer temperature
How direct competitors stack up against ARCC right now.
- NEUTRALMAINMain Street Capital
COLDER — trading at a much higher premium to NAV (1.5x+) making the entry point less attractive than ARCC.
See full analysis → - HOTORCCBlue Owl Capital Corp
HOTTER — trading at a steeper discount to NAV with a similar yield profile, offering more potential capital appreciation.
See full analysis → - NEUTRALHTGCHercules Capital
COLDER — niche focus on venture debt carries higher risk profile compared to ARCC's established middle-market stability.
See full analysis →
- ARCC+3.2%
- MAIN+2.4%
- ORCC—
- HTGC-1.0%
Analyst price target
Consensus average of 8 analysts · median 20.50
Source: StockAnalysis.com · updated 2026-10-30
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.