Hot or Cold

ACGL stock sentiment todayArch Capital Group Ltd.

Sentiment verdict

Gossip first, financials second — HOT at 85% confidence.

Last updated · cached analysis, refreshes periodically

NASDAQ

ACGL

Arch Capital Group Ltd.
96.47 USD 0.41%vs. session open
Live · market openQuote as of Sep 8, 06:40 PM UTC
HOT85% confidenceSign in to save

A premier specialty insurer and reinsurer consistently delivering industry-leading ROE and underwriting excellence amidst a hardening insurance market.

Analyzed Sep 8, 2026, 12:19 PM UTC·Quote: CNBC / Yahoo Finance·News: Google News·Targets: StockAnalysis.com·AI: Lovable AI (google/gemini-3-flash-preview)
ToneACGL is HOT — A premier specialty insurer and reinsurer consistently delivering industry-leading ROE and underwriting excellence amidst a hardening insurance market. 6-month call: USD103.76 (+7.6%).
6-month price prediction
USD103.76 7.6%by Mar 2027
85% model confidence
Bear USD88.20Now USD96.47Bull USD119.31
Crowd call · 6 months
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🔒 Full prediction model breakdown

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Full model breakdown (analyst / gossip / momentum weights) is a Pro feature. Modelled for ACGL. Not financial advice.

02·a

Price · last 12 months

84.72106.48 USD
Growth
1W
-0.7%
1M
-1.0%
3M
+9.5%
6M
+2.6%
YTD
+4.5%
1Y
+7.9%
01

Gossip

bullish

Market sentiment remains strongly positive as Arch continues to benefit from a 'hard' insurance market (higher premiums, stricter terms). Investors view it as a 'best-in-class' operator that pivotally manages capital between insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage segments based on where returns are highest.

  • ·Hardening reinsurance rates boosting margins
  • ·Consistent track record of book value per share growth
  • ·Recent S&P 500 inclusion driving institutional demand
  • ·Superior underwriting discipline compared to legacy peers
02

Financial

strong

Arch Capital maintains an exceptionally strong balance sheet with a low combined ratio (consistently below 90%) indicating high underwriting profitability. Its diversified model allows it to absorb volatility in mortgage insurance while capitalizing on high-rate property-casualty cycles.

  • ·P/E Ratio: ~11.5x (Attractive relative to 5-year average)
  • ·ROE: Consistently exceeding 15-20%
  • ·Price-to-Book: ~2.1x (Premium to peers but justified by returns)
  • ·Combined Ratio: 82-85% in recent quarters
02b

Conviction

Mixed

Whose money is actually in the stock — insider open-market trades and the patience of the institutional holder base.

42conviction score / 100

Mixed conviction — no decisive signal from insiders or the holder base.

  • ·Insiders sold a net $1.2M on the open market in the last 120 days.
Insider buys (120d)
0
Net insider flow
-$1.2M
Patient capital
58%
🔒 Who bought, and who's holding

Pro shows every named insider trade in the window (buyer, title, size, price, and whether it was a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sale) plus the full holder register split into patient capital and fast money.

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Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 + 13F holder register. Option exercises, grants, gifts and tax withholding are excluded — only open-market purchases and sales count. Not financial advice.

03

Risks

watch
  • ·Exposure to catastrophic events (hurricanes/wildfires) affecting reinsurance
  • ·Potential slowdown in the U.S. housing market impacting the mortgage segment
  • ·Investment portfolio sensitivity to sudden interest rate shifts
05

Analyst price target

HOT
111.10 USD 15.2% vs current

Consensus average of 15 analysts · median 110.00

Low 93.00High 134.00

Source: StockAnalysis.com · updated 2026-08-13

AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.