ASML stock sentiment todayASML Holding N.V.
Sentiment verdict
Gossip first, financials second — NEUTRAL at 75% confidence.
Last updated · cached analysis, refreshes periodically
ASML
ASML Holding N.V.The undisputed gatekeeper of advanced lithography facing a temporary 'transition year' digestion phase and geopolitical headwinds.
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See exactly how analyst targets, gossip sentiment and momentum are weighted into this 6-month forecast.
Sign in to go Pro →Full model breakdown (analyst / gossip / momentum weights) is a Pro feature. Modelled for ASML. Not financial advice.
Price · last 12 months
Gossip
The market is currently wrestling with 'low-NA' versus 'High-NA' EUV adoption timelines. While long-term AI demand is a tailwind, recent chatter focuses on sluggish non-AI logic markets and potential further US-led export restrictions to China, which accounts for a significant portion of their current backlog.
- ·High-NA EUV tool shipping to Intel/TSMC
- ·China export control fears
- ·2024 recovery vs 2025 growth narrative
Financial
ASML maintains a near-monopoly on EUV technology with best-in-class gross margins (approx 51%). While 2024 is guided as a flat 'transition' year, the balance sheet is pristine with high ROIC, though the forward P/E remains premium compared to broader semi-caps.
- ·Gross Margin: ~51%
- ·Monopoly status in EUV
- ·Backlog: >€35 Billion
Conviction
Whose money is actually in the stock — insider open-market trades and the patience of the institutional holder base.
Mixed conviction — no decisive signal from insiders or the holder base.
- ·No open-market insider trades in the last 120 days.
Pro shows every named insider trade in the window (buyer, title, size, price, and whether it was a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sale) plus the full holder register split into patient capital and fast money.
Unlock with Pro →Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 + 13F holder register. Option exercises, grants, gifts and tax withholding are excluded — only open-market purchases and sales count. Not financial advice.
Risks
- ·Geopolitical escalation regarding DUV/EUV sales to China
- ·High-NA EUV technical execution and cost-benefit for foundries
- ·Cyclical downturn in smartphones and PCs impacting DUV demand
Peer temperature
How direct competitors stack up against ASML right now.
- HOTAMATApplied Materials
HOTTER — offers broader exposure to the entire fab process at a lower P/E ratio, benefiting more from trailing-edge capacity expansions.
See full analysis → - NEUTRALLRCXLam Research
SIMILAR — heavily tied to memory spending (NAND/DRAM) which is recovering, but faces similar China revenue concentration risks.
See full analysis → - HOTKLACKLA Corporation
HOTTER — dominant in process control/inspection with higher stickiness and less sensitivity to the specific lithography node transitions.
See full analysis →
- ASML-13.6%
- AMAT-23.7%
- LRCX-27.2%
- KLAC-19.0%
Analyst price target
Consensus average of 8 analysts · median 2,500.00
Source: StockAnalysis.com · updated 2026-10-16
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.