PGR stock sentiment todayThe Progressive Corporation
Sentiment verdict
Gossip first, financials second — HOT at 88% confidence.
Last updated · cached analysis, refreshes periodically
PGR
The Progressive CorporationProgressive remains the gold standard in auto insurance underwriting, leveraging superior data analytics to maintain industry-leading margins while competitors struggle with loss ratios.
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See exactly how analyst targets, gossip sentiment and momentum are weighted into this 6-month forecast.
Sign in to go Pro →Full model breakdown (analyst / gossip / momentum weights) is a Pro feature. Modelled for PGR. Not financial advice.
Price · last 12 months
Gossip
The market views PGR as a defensive powerhouse that wins in high-inflation environments due to its ability to reprice policies faster than peers. Investors are currently focused on its aggressive growth in the homeowners segment and its consistent ability to keep the Combined Ratio below 96%.
- ·Superior telematics (Snapshot) data advantage
- ·Fastest policy repricing in the industry
- ·Market share gains from GEICO and smaller insurers
- ·High interest rate environment boosting investment income
Financial
PGR demonstrates exceptional operational efficiency with a Return on Equity (ROE) frequently exceeding 20% and a pristine balance sheet characterized by disciplined reserving.
- ·Combined Ratio consistently outperforms industry average by 3-5 points
- ·Double-digit net premiums written (NPW) growth
- ·Robust capital position with low debt-to-equity ratio
- ·Premium-to-surplus ratio remains within conservative historical norms
Conviction
Whose money is actually in the stock — insider open-market trades and the patience of the institutional holder base.
Strong conviction — insiders and patient capital are backing this.
- ·No open-market insider trades in the last 120 days.
Pro shows every named insider trade in the window (buyer, title, size, price, and whether it was a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sale) plus the full holder register split into patient capital and fast money.
Unlock with Pro →Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 + 13F holder register. Option exercises, grants, gifts and tax withholding are excluded — only open-market purchases and sales count. Not financial advice.
Risks
- ·Severe weather events (catastrophe losses) impacting the property segment
- ·Potential for social inflation and rising litigation costs in auto claims
- ·Valuation premium compared to legacy insurers makes it sensitive to earnings misses
Peer temperature
How direct competitors stack up against PGR right now.
- NEUTRALALLThe Allstate Corporation
COLDER — struggling with higher loss ratios and a less efficient direct-to-consumer distribution model compared to PGR's tech-first approach.
See full analysis → - NEUTRALTRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.
COLDER — offers a more diversified commercial book but lacks PGR’s hyper-growth in the personal auto segment and superior data-driven pricing.
See full analysis → - COLDGEICO (BRK.B)Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
COLDER — despite massive scale, GEICO has lagged Progressive in telematics adoption, resulting in less precise risk segmentation and slower recent growth.
See full analysis →
- PGR+2.9%
- ALL-1.9%
- TRV-3.4%
- GEICO (BRK.B)—
Analyst price target
Consensus average of 18 analysts · median 234.00
Source: StockAnalysis.com · updated 2026-08-27
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.