Hot or Cold

SMCI stock sentiment todaySuper Micro Computer Inc

Sentiment verdict

Gossip first, financials second — COLD at 85% confidence.

Last updated · cached analysis, refreshes periodically

NASDAQ

SMCI

Super Micro Computer Inc
37.08 USD 2.46%vs. session open
After hours · market closedQuote as of Aug 31, 02:23 AM UTC
COLD85% confidenceSign in to save

Severe governance alarms and a late 10-K filing outweigh the massive AI-driven revenue growth, turning a former momentum darling into a high-risk falling knife.

Analyzed Aug 30, 2026, 06:53 PM UTC·Quote: CNBC / Yahoo Finance·News: Google News·AI: Lovable AI (google/gemini-3-flash-preview)
ToneSMCI is COLD — Severe governance alarms and a late 10-K filing outweigh the massive AI-driven revenue growth, turning a former momentum darling into a high-risk falling knife. 6-month call: USD33.31 (-10.2%).
6-month price prediction
USD33.31 10.2%by Mar 2027
59% model confidence
Bear USD13.32Now USD37.08Bull USD53.30
Crowd call · 6 months
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Full model breakdown (analyst / gossip / momentum weights) is a Pro feature. Modelled for SMCI. Not financial advice.

02·a

Price · last 12 months

20.5358.68 USD
Growth
1W
-0.4%
1M
+44.3%
3M
-20.9%
6M
+16.5%
YTD
+19.8%
1Y
-9.1%
01

Gossip

bearish

The narrative has shifted from 'AI growth leader' to 'governance nightmare' following a scathing short-seller report from Hindenburg Research and the subsequent delay of its annual 10-K filing.

  • ·Allegations of accounting manipulation and round-tripping
  • ·Resignation of auditor Ernst & Young citing integrity concerns
  • ·Department of Justice (DOJ) probe reports
  • ·Potential Nasdaq delisting risk
02

Financial

average

While top-line growth is explosive due to liquid-cooled rack demand, margins are thinning under competitive pressure, and the reliability of stated financials is currently under a cloud of uncertainty.

  • ·Revenue growth exceeding 140% year-over-year in recent quarters
  • ·Gross margins pressured (dropping toward 11%) due to high component costs
  • ·Significant inventory build-up suggesting cash flow strain
  • ·Forward P/E appears low (~10x) but is considered 'fake' by bears due to audit risks
02b

Conviction

Strong

Whose money is actually in the stock — insider open-market trades and the patience of the institutional holder base.

65conviction score / 100

Quiet accumulation — the chatter is cold but the smart money is leaning in.

Quiet accumulation — the chatter and the money are pointing in opposite directions. That divergence is the signal.
  • ·No open-market insider trades in the last 120 days.
Insider buys (120d)
0
Net insider flow
Patient capital
62%
🔒 Who bought, and who's holding

Pro shows every named insider trade in the window (buyer, title, size, price, and whether it was a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sale) plus the full holder register split into patient capital and fast money.

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Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 + 13F holder register. Option exercises, grants, gifts and tax withholding are excluded — only open-market purchases and sales count. Not financial advice.

03

Risks

watch
  • ·Nasdaq delisting if 10-K filing requirements are not met
  • ·Customer churn (e.g., Tesla or xAI) moving to more stable suppliers like Dell
  • ·Severe legal penalties or restatements resulting from DOJ probe
  • ·Continued margin erosion in a commoditized AI server market

AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.