TAIL stock sentiment todayCambria Tail Risk ETF
Sentiment verdict
Gossip first, financials second — COLD at 85% confidence.
Last updated · cached analysis, refreshes periodically
TAIL
Cambria Tail Risk ETFA structural 'insurance' fund that suffers from consistent decay and negative carry in trending bull markets.
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See exactly how analyst targets, gossip sentiment and momentum are weighted into this 6-month forecast.
Sign in to go Pro →Full model breakdown (analyst / gossip / momentum weights) is a Pro feature. Modelled for TAIL. Not financial advice.
Price · last 12 months
Gossip
Market narrative views TAIL as a 'broken' hedge; while it serves as a black-swan insurance policy, investors are increasingly frustrated by the 'theta decay' (time decay) of its put options during the prolonged AI-driven bull market.
- ·Low volatility regime (VIX suppression)
- ·Opportunity cost of holding cash/hedges
- ·Skepticism over 'permabear' strategies
Financial
Fundamentally designed to lose money in most years, TAIL invests in out-of-the-money put options and U.S. Treasuries; its NAV is down over 40% since inception due to the cost of maintaining protection.
- ·Expense Ratio: 0.59%
- ·Negative 5-year CAGR: ~ -12%
- ·Yield: ~1.5-2.0% (from Treasury collateral)
Risks
- ·Time decay (Theta) erodes value daily
- ·Opportunity cost during equity rallies
- ·Potential for Treasuries and Puts to devalue simultaneously in high-inflation shocks
Peer temperature
How direct competitors stack up against TAIL right now.
- HOTPPUTWisdomTree PutWrite Strategy ETF
HOTTER — generates income by selling puts rather than buying them, benefiting from the 'volatility risk premium' that TAIL pays out.
See full analysis → - NEUTRALBTALAGFiQ US Market Anti-Beta Fund
WARMER — provides a market-neutral hedge by shorting high-beta stocks, avoiding the aggressive option decay found in TAIL.
See full analysis → - COLDCYASimplify Tail Risk Strategy ETF
COLDER — utilizes even more aggressive leverage and credit spread hedges, leading to even steeper NAV erosion than TAIL in calm markets.
See full analysis →
- TAIL-1.6%
- PPUT—
- BTAL+2.9%
- CYA—
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.