UPST stock sentiment todayUpstart Holdings, Inc.
Sentiment verdict
Gossip first, financials second — COLD at 75% confidence.
Last updated · cached analysis, refreshes periodically
UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc.A high-beta AI play currently trapped between high interest rates and a tightening credit cycle, leading to inconsistent loan volumes.
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See exactly how analyst targets, gossip sentiment and momentum are weighted into this 6-month forecast.
Sign in to go Pro →Full model breakdown (analyst / gossip / momentum weights) is a Pro feature. Modelled for UPST. Not financial advice.
Price · last 12 months
Gossip
The narrative has shifted from 'AI disruptor' to 'macro victim.' Investors are concerned about the platform's sensitivity to the Fed's rate path and the reliability of its proprietary AI models in a non-zero interest rate environment.
- ·Dependency on third-party funding partners
- ·Short interest remains elevated
- ·Skepticism over long-term credit performance vs FICO
Financial
Upstart is struggling with significant revenue contraction and a lack of GAAP profitability as loan originations have cratered from 2021 peaks.
- ·Negative Net Income margins
- ·Revenue down significantly from pandemic highs
- ·High reliance on institutional capital markets for liquidity
Conviction
Whose money is actually in the stock — insider open-market trades and the patience of the institutional holder base.
Mixed conviction — no decisive signal from insiders or the holder base.
- ·Insiders sold a net $1.8M on the open market in the last 120 days.
Pro shows every named insider trade in the window (buyer, title, size, price, and whether it was a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sale) plus the full holder register split into patient capital and fast money.
Unlock with Pro →Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 + 13F holder register. Option exercises, grants, gifts and tax withholding are excluded — only open-market purchases and sales count. Not financial advice.
Risks
- ·Higher-for-longer interest rates dampening borrower demand
- ·Credit quality deterioration in the personal loan sector
- ·Concentration risk with primary lending partners
Peer temperature
How direct competitors stack up against UPST right now.
- HOTSOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.
HOTTER — possesses a diversified banking license and stable deposit base, reducing reliance on volatile capital markets.
See full analysis → - NEUTRALLCLendingClub Corporation
WARMER — trading at a more attractive P/B ratio with a structured bank charter that provides a lower cost of funds.
See full analysis → - NEUTRALAFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.
NEUTRAL — faces similar macro headwinds but maintains stronger merchant integrations and GMV growth through the BNPL shift.
See full analysis →
- UPST+9.3%
- SOFI+18.4%
- LC—
- AFRM+10.9%
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.