UPST stock sentiment todayUpstart Holdings, Inc.
Sentiment verdict
Gossip first, financials second — COLD at 75% confidence.
Last updated · cached analysis, refreshes periodically
UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc.A high-beta casualty of the high-interest-rate environment struggling with declining loan volumes and institutional funding skepticism.
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See exactly how analyst targets, gossip sentiment and momentum are weighted into this 6-month forecast.
Sign in to go Pro →Full model breakdown (analyst / gossip / momentum weights) is a Pro feature. Modelled for UPST. Not financial advice.
Price · last 12 months
Gossip
The narrative has shifted from 'AI disruptor' to 'macro victim.' Short interest remains high as the market doubts the efficacy of Upstart's AI models during a credit downturn and fears prolonged 'higher for longer' rates will further stifle origination volumes.
- ·Credit performance concerns in a cooling economy
- ·Dependence on third-party funding markets which have dried up
- ·Volatility tied to CPI and Fed rate cut expectations
Financial
Revenue has cratered from 2021 peaks as loan originations collapsed. While the company is trying to pivot to home equity lines (HELOCs) and auto retail, it is currently burning cash and remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis with compressed margins.
- ·Negative GAAP Net Income
- ·Significant year-over-year revenue contraction
- ·Increasing reliance on own balance sheet to fund loans (liquidity risk)
Conviction
Whose money is actually in the stock — insider open-market trades and the patience of the institutional holder base.
Hollow — insiders are stepping back and the register is short-horizon.
- ·Insiders sold a net $2.8M on the open market in the last 120 days.
Pro shows every named insider trade in the window (buyer, title, size, price, and whether it was a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sale) plus the full holder register split into patient capital and fast money.
Unlock with Pro →Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 + 13F holder register. Option exercises, grants, gifts and tax withholding are excluded — only open-market purchases and sales count. Not financial advice.
Risks
- ·Refusal of institutional partners to purchase Upstart-powered loans
- ·Model degradation if AI fails to predict defaults better than FICO in a recession
- ·Continued share dilution through stock-based compensation
Peer temperature
How direct competitors stack up against UPST right now.
- NEUTRALSOFISoFi Technologies
Possesses a diversified banking license and stable deposit base, reducing reliance on fickle capital markets for loan funding.
See full analysis → - NEUTRALLCLendingClub
Similar macro headwinds but maintains a more conservative bank-holding structure and lower valuation multiples compared to UPST's 'tech' premium.
See full analysis → - NEUTRALAFRMAffirm Holdings
Higher growth narrative due to e-commerce integrations, though it shares UPST's vulnerability to rising delinquency trends.
See full analysis →
- UPST+0.1%
- SOFI+6.6%
- LC—
- AFRM+6.1%
Analyst price target
Consensus average of 13 analysts · median 37.00
Source: StockAnalysis.com · updated 2026-10-15
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.