TDG stock sentiment todayTransDigm Group Incorporated
Sentiment verdict
Gossip first, financials second — HOT at 88% confidence.
Last updated · cached analysis, refreshes periodically
TDG
TransDigm Group IncorporatedThe 'TransDigm Flywheel' continues to dominate the aerospace aftermarket with monopolistic-like margins and aggressive M&A execution.
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See exactly how analyst targets, gossip sentiment and momentum are weighted into this 6-month forecast.
Sign in to go Pro →Full model breakdown (analyst / gossip / momentum weights) is a Pro feature. Modelled for TDG. Not financial advice.
Price · last 12 months
Gossip
Market sentiment remains highly positive as the global recovery in air travel boosts high-margin aftermarket parts demand. The narrative focuses on TDG as a 'private equity firm in a public wrapper' that successfully passes on inflation via pricing power.
- ·Recovery in wide-body aircraft utilization
- ·Robust defense spending cycles
- ·Strategic acquisition of CPI's electron device business
- ·Consistent history of special dividends
Financial
TransDigm boasts industry-leading EBITDA margins (approx. 50%) due to its focus on proprietary, sole-source aerospace components. While debt levels are high, its interest coverage is stable and cash flow generation is exceptional.
- ·EBITDA Margins: ~50-52%
- ·Organic Revenue Growth: Mid-teens
- ·Leverage: High (~5.0x Net Debt/EBITDA) but managed
- ·Aftermarket Revenue: ~75% of profitability
Conviction
Whose money is actually in the stock — insider open-market trades and the patience of the institutional holder base.
Hollow hype — the story is loud but nobody with skin in the game is buying.
- ·Insiders sold a net $45.1M on the open market in the last 120 days.
Pro shows every named insider trade in the window (buyer, title, size, price, and whether it was a pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sale) plus the full holder register split into patient capital and fast money.
Unlock with Pro →Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 + 13F holder register. Option exercises, grants, gifts and tax withholding are excluded — only open-market purchases and sales count. Not financial advice.
Risks
- ·Regulatory scrutiny regarding aggressive pricing on government contracts
- ·High sensitivity to global air traffic volume
- ·Debt servicing costs in a sustained high-interest-rate environment
Peer temperature
How direct competitors stack up against TDG right now.
- NEUTRALHEIHeico Corporation
COLDER — trading at a significantly higher P/E multiple despite lower operating margins than TDG.
See full analysis → - HOTHWMHowmet Aerospace
HOTTER — benefiting from a sharp ramp-up in engine casting demand with a less leveraged balance sheet.
See full analysis → - COLDRTXRTX Corporation
COLDER — facing ongoing operational headwinds and liability risks from Pratt & Whitney engine recalls.
See full analysis →
- TDG-7.4%
- HEI-11.3%
- HWM-11.0%
- RTX-9.7%
Analyst price target
Consensus average of 13 analysts · median 1,450.00
Source: StockAnalysis.com · updated 2026-09-03
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.